Greetings snow-riders! Got plans for Sunday? Christmas shopping?  Yard work?  Putting the lights up on the house? As wildly fun and exciting as that all sounds, you might want to consider putting all that on the back burner and jetting up to the mountain for some early season turns. Why?  Because:

a) There will be anywhere from 6 to 20 inches of new snow in the Oregon mountains, depending on where you ride.
b) Getting turns in on December 2 is rad, and ensures you'll get at least some skiing in before Christmas.
c) It'll improve your overall outlook on life and make you less bitter when you go back to work on Monday.

The storm coming in tonight, like its predecessors, has plenty of moisture, but this one also has colder air coming in behind it. Snow level in north Oregon Cascades will drop to 3,000 feet, so Mt Hood will get its best combination of deep and fluffy of the season so far. Mt Hood will also be in the 20" range of new snow. Yes, it'll be windy. It'll be cold. Basically, it'll be glorious.

Farther south, Mt Bachelor should be close to 20 inches of new snow by late Sunday too. This will add to the already substantial Mid Mountain Depth (7300') of 48" that Mt Bachelor is reporting.

Mt Ashland plans on opening Thursday, and this storm will help improve its ever growing base. Southern Oregon mountains have been getting hammered by this series of storms, with Mt Ashland reporting 20 inches new in 24 hours a few days ago.

Northeast Oregon will also benefit from this storm, with a solid 12 inches falling up at Anthony Lakes, possibly more. This storm should help Anthony Lakes reach its goal of a December 8 opening.

Looking ahead, we've got another storm rolling in Monday. Snow will begin to fall again Monday afternoon at about 3,000 feet, but the snow level will climb to 6,000 feet by Tuesday morning. This will bring another solid coating of snow to our slopes, probably in the 8 to 12 inch range again.

The next best day for skiing that I see will be Wednesday, as the snow level drops back down to 3,000 feet, and maybe down to 2,000 feet with another 6 inches or so as the snow level is dropping. After that, we dry out for a couple days heading into next weekend, so some bluebird possibilities should take flight.

Remember, it IS early season, and there WILL be obstacles to avoid. So be careful out there. Otherwise, let 'er rip. The shopping and light hanging can wait.

Happy Trails and Turns,

Matt Zaffino
Chief Meteorologist
KGW Media Group

(Matt Zaffino has been forecasting powder days in Oregon for over 25 years. An avid back-country telemark skier, he’s hit the slopes of Oregon from his previous home near Mt Ashland to secret powder stashes in the Wallowa’s, while logging as many runs as possible at all of the resorts in the Oregon Cascades.)

Ski Oregon
PO Box 6945
Portland, OR 97228
SkiOregon.org  

Skier, boarder, and lovers of mountain snow… here we go! Welcome to Ski Season 2012-2013.

But what about the season overall? Every fall I get asked “should I buy a season’s pass this year?” People just cut right to the chase. What I want to say back is “I don’t know, will you use it? Will your wife/husband/SO get mad if you do? Will you get mad if you don’t?” All things I can’t answer and really don’t care about, and besides, I know what they really mean is…

WILL IT BE A GOOD YEAR ON THE MOUNTAIN????

To which I say, this year, YES! I think it will be a good year for the Northwest snowpack and for the West in general.  Maybe not as strong as two years ago, when on April 15 Timberline had 203” of snow, but then again most years aren’t.

What’s happening? First, the El Niño that seemed to be developing in late summer and early fall has stopped developing. I wasn’t too worried about this anyway, because indications were that it would be a weak El Niño, and we’ve seen some amazing snowfall in years with weak El Niño But the fact that it’s not developing and is not expected to developing the months ahead, is generally good news for Northwest skiers. There are some other patterns of climatic variability I look at, but El Nino/La Nina seems to have the best correlation to northern hemisphere winter weather. But here comes the disclaimers, and no it's not about calling your doctor if it snows for more than four hours.

Each El Nino, or no Nino in this case, is unique. And, there are probably other climatic patterns that we're missing. And perhaps the biggest disclaimer is that skill in long range winter forecasts isn't great.

That said, I see no reason to believe this won't be a good year.  I expect our typical amount of variability, meaning we can go from big snowfalls with a 1,000 to 2,000 foot snow level, to pineapple express and ski slope rain. Hey we all know it happens, and there's no reason to believe it won't this year. Warm happens even in a “cold” year. Likewise, even in a “warm” year, and I'm not saying this winter will be a warm one, but even in a warm winter there can easily be a two to three week period of excellent skiing.

Full disclosure... we're planning on taking a trip to Whitefish, MT this year on the ski train. Not that I think that will be THE only place with great snow. But I don't see any reason it'll be a bad year for the northern Rockies. Or for the great Northwest!

Moving forward I plan on issuing powder alerts when the storms begin to line up, in hope of helping you plan your outings for primo conditions. I'll also post when there's anything interesting to report. And you can follow me on twitter @Zaffino, where I tend to post more immediate tidbits regarding weather and skiing.

Happy Trails and Turns,

Matt Zaffino
Chief Meteorologist
KGW Media Group